Estimating APC Model Parameters for Dynamic Intervals Determined Using Change-Point Detection in Continuous Processes in the Petrochemical Industry

Abstract

Several papers have proven that advanced process controller (APC) systems can save more energy in the process than proportional-integral-differential (PID) controller systems. Therefore, implementing an APC system is ultimately beneficial for saving energy in the plant. In a typical APC system deployment, the APC model parameters are calculated from dynamic data intervals obtained through the plant test. However, depending on the proficiency of the APC engineer, the results of the plant test and the APC model parameters are implemented differently. To minimize the influence of the APC engineer and calculate universal APC model parameters, a technique is needed to obtain dynamic data without a plant test. In this study, we utilize time-series data from a real petrochemical plant to determine dynamic intervals and estimate APC model parameters, which have not been investigated in previous studies. This involves extracting the data of the dynamic intervals with the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) by utilizing statistical techniques such as pruned exact linear time, linear kernel, and radial basis function kernel of change-point detection (CPD). After that, we fix the hyper parameters at the minimum MAE value and estimate the APC model parameters by training with the data from the dynamic intervals. The estimated APC model parameters are applied to the APC program to compare the APC model fitting rate and verify the accuracy of the APC model parameters in the dynamic intervals obtained through CPD. The final validation of the model fitting rates demonstrates that the identification of the dynamic intervals and the estimation of the APC model parameters through CPD show high accuracy. We show that it is possible to estimate APC model parameters from dynamic intervals determined by CPD without a plant test.