Integrated Assessment Modeling of China’s Shale Gas Resource: Energy System Optimization, Environmental Cobenefits, and Methane Risk

Abstract

Comprehensive evaluation of shale gas resource, which plays a role in energy system optimization, atmospheric environmental cobenefit, and methane risk, has long been ignored in China. This research aims to fill this gap and conduct a study based on the China-Multi-pollutant Abatement Planning and Long-term benefit Evaluation model to answer the research question, “When considering environmental and climate risks, does the shale gas resource in China exert a negative or positive effect?” Results show that shale gas plays an important role in replacing coal and optimizing the energy structure. Shale gas can also effectively help reduce the key local pollutant emissions. Approximately 84.85 thousand of deaths (persons) and 32.24 billion yuan of economic loss can be avoided in 2030 with the reduction of SO2 and NOx. The methane risk, which has been disregarded in China when evaluating cobenefits, is also considered in this study. The economic loss due to methane leakage is estimated to reach approximately 2.76 billion yuan on average in 2030. Overall, the net atmospheric environmental cobenefit could reach 68.61 billion yuan on average in 2030, accounting for 0.04% of China’s GDP. This study provides positive evidence for an integrated assessment of shale gas resource in coal-dominant developing countries.