Study on the Application of Typhoon Experience Parameter Analysis in Taiwan’s Offshore Wind Farms

Abstract

Due to the rapid development of computers, researchers have made efforts since the 1990s to develop typhoon forecasting models and stochastic typhoon simulation models to assess typhoon disasters and risks. Typhoon forecasting models are primarily used to predict and track the movement of typhoons and provide warning information to the general public before landfall. Stochastic typhoon simulation models can assess extreme wind speeds and compensate for the limitations of current observations and simulation data length. Taiwan experiences approximately three to four typhoons yearly, of varying intensities and paths. Whether the marine meteorological data includes events of strong typhoon centers passing through will affect the results of frequency analysis. The development of offshore wind power in Taiwan is closely related to the unique marine meteorological conditions throughout the lifecycle stages, including wind farm site selection, feasibility studies, planning and design, construction and installation, operation and maintenance, and decommissioning. This study references relevant research and analyzes sixty-three scenarios using nine types of maximum storm wind speed radii and seven Holland-B parameters. The data from Japan Meteorological Agency Best Track Data (JMA BTD) is utilized, explicitly selecting 20 typhoon events after 2000 for wind speed simulation using a typhoon wind speed model. After validating the typhoon wind speeds with observation data from the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Hsinchu and the Longdong buoy, the technique of Monte Carlo simulation is utilized to generate synthetic typhoons randomly. The average of the relative absolute errors for the simulated maximum wind speeds is calculated, and through comprehensive evaluation, optimal parameter combinations (Rm, B) are obtained.