Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)

Abstract

Climate change is having many effects in the agricultural sector, which are being studied worldwide. Undoubtedly, warmer winters and earlier springs produce changes in frost regimes and severity that will affect the sustainability of agricultural production in the area. The Mediterranean region and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are among the areas where the greatest impact of climate change is expected. Daily data from 68 weather stations of the IP belonging to the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (1975–2018) were used to conduct a spatiotemporal study of the frost regime. The variables calculated include the probability of three frost types according to their severity, frost day, mean absolute minimum yearly temperature, first frost day, last frost day, and frost-free period. These variables were integrated into a geographic information system, which allowed the graphical visualization of their patterns using of geostatistical interpolation techniques (kriging). Changes in frost variables were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. A general reduction in the number of frosts per year is observed (values between −0.04- and −0.8-day frosts per year), as well as an increase in the mean absolute minimum temperature (values between 0.04 and 0.10 °C per year), with very high significant trends throughout the territory. The reduction in the number of frosts is more pronounced at a higher elevation. Frost dates vary greatly due to the orographic characteristics of the IP. The generalized trend is of a significant delay of the autumn frosts (values between 0.4 and 1.06 days/year), as well as early spring frosts (between −0.429 and −1.29 days/year), and as a consequence a longer frost-free period, all changes were much stronger than those found in other regions of the world. These effects of climate change must be mitigated by modifying species, varieties, and cultivation techniques to guarantee sustainable agriculture.