Genetic Diversity Analysis and Potential Distribution Prediction of Sophora moorcroftiana Endemic to Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, China

Abstract

Sophora moorcroftiana (Benth.) Baker is an endemic woody species distributed in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP), a part of the world characterized by high altitude and cold weather. In this study, the genetic diversity of S. moorcroftiana was evaluated based on 300 representative samples of 15 populations using 20 polymorphic SSR markers, and its potential distribution was predicted according to 19 bioclimatic factors using MaxEnt modeling. Results showed the population genetic diversity of S. moorcroftiana was generally not high (around 0.5), and the range of variation was small (0.437–0.539). Altitude, rather than other environmental factors, was the key factor affecting the present genetic diversity. Moreover, due to climate change in the QTP, the suitable area is increasing and will continue to increase by 48.35%, 84.44%, 101.98%, and 107.30% in the four future periods of 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s, respectively, compared to the present, which is beneficial for S. moorcroftiana. These results will provide a theoretical basis for the development of germplasm conservation strategies for S. moorcroftiana and enrich information on the impacts of climate change on plants in the QTP.