An Extension of the Susceptible–Infected Model and Its Application to the Analysis of Information Dissemination in Social Networks

Abstract

Social media significantly influences business, politics, and society. Easy access and interaction among users allow information to spread rapidly across social networks. Understanding how information is disseminated through these new publishing methods is crucial for political and marketing purposes. However, modeling and predicting information diffusion is challenging due to the complex interactions between network users. This study proposes an analytical approach based on diffusion models to predict the number of social media users engaging in discussions on a topic. We develop a modified version of the susceptible–infected (SI) model that considers the heterogeneity of interactions between users in complex networks. Our model considers the network structure, abandons the assumption of homogeneous mixing, and focuses on information diffusion in scale-free networks. We provide explicit algorithms for modeling information propagation on different types of random graphs and real network structures. We compare our model with alternative approaches, both those considering network structure and those that do not. The accuracy of our model in predicting the number of informed nodes in simulated information diffusion networks demonstrates its effectiveness in describing and predicting information dissemination in social networks. This study highlights the potential of graph-based epidemic models in analyzing online discussion topics and understanding other phenomena spreading on social networks.