From Data to Draught: Modelling and Predicting Mixed-Culture Beer Fermentation Dynamics Using Autoregressive Recurrent Neural Networks

Abstract

The ascendency of the craft beer movement within the brewing industry may be attributed to its commitment to unique flavours and innovative styles. Mixed-culture fermentation, celebrated for its novel organoleptic profiles, presents a modelling challenge due to its complex microbial dynamics. This study addresses the inherent complexity of modelling mixed-culture beer fermentation while acknowledging the condition monitoring limitations of craft breweries, namely sporadic offline sampling rates and limited available measurement parameters. A data-driven solution is proposed, utilising an Autoregressive Recurrent Neural Network (AR-RNN) to facilitate the production of novel, replicable, mixed-culture fermented beers. This research identifies time from pitch, specific gravity, pH, and fluid temperature as pivotal model parameters that are cost-effective for craft breweries to monitor offline. Notably, the autoregressive RNN fermentation model is generated using high-frequency multivariate data, a departure from intermittent offline measurements. Employing the trained autoregressive RNN framework, we demonstrate its robust forecasting prowess using limited offline input data, emphasising its ability to capture intricate fermentation dynamics. This data-driven approach offers significant advantages, showcasing the model’s accuracy across various fermentation configurations. Moreover, tailoring the design to the craft beer market’s unique demands significantly enhances the model’s practicable predictive capabilities. It empowers nuanced decision-making in real-world mixed-culture beer production. Furthermore, this model lays the groundwork for future studies, highlighting transformative possibilities for cost-effective model-based control systems in the craft beer sector.