Development and Validation of a Scoring System (SAGA Score) to Predict Weight Loss in Community-Dwelling, Self-Supported Older Adults

Abstract

This retrospective cohort study explored the prevalence of substantial weight loss (≥10% per year) in independent older individuals in order to develop and validate a scoring system for high-risk group identification and targeted intervention against malnutrition. We used insurance claims and the Kokuho Database (KDB), a nationwide repository of Japanese-specific health checkups and health assessments for the older people. The study included 12,882 community-dwelling individuals aged 75 years and older who were self-supported in their activities of daily living in Saga Prefecture, Japan. Health evaluations and questionnaires categorized weight-loss factors into organic, physiological, psychological, and non-medical domains. The resulting scoring system (SAGA score), incorporating logistic regression models, predicted ≥ 10% annual weight-loss risk. The results revealed a 1.7% rate of annual substantial weight loss, with the SAGA score effectively stratifying the participants into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk categories. The high-risk category exhibited a weight-loss rate of 17.6%, highlighting the utility of this scoring system for targeted prevention. In conclusion, the validated SAGA score is a crucial tool for identifying individuals at high risk of significant weight loss, enabling tailored interventions and social support benefiting both older individuals and their relatives.