The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Road Traffic Safety: A Study Based on the ARDL-ECM Model

Abstract

This paper attempts to examine whether socioeconomic volatility produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators. Adopting the Autoregressive distributed lag error-correction model (ARDL-ECM), this paper explores the long-term equilibrium and short-term interactions between five common economic indicators, namely, average salaries (AS), employment (EM), unemployment (UE), total mileage of highway (TMH), and private vehicle ownership (PVO), as well as road traffic-related indicators including the number of road traffic accidents (RTA), injuries (IN), fatalities (FA), and direct economic losses (DEL), using data of road traffic accidents spanning from 1999 to 2018 in China. The study found that all economic indicators except average salaries showed a long-term equilibrium with road traffic accident indicators. The Granger causality test showed that, over the short term, an increase in employment could lead to an increase in injuries, and an increase in private vehicle ownership could cause a rise in fatalities. This study demonstrates that the volatility in economic indicators indeed produces differentiated effects on road traffic accident indicators, providing a theoretical basis for improving road safety performance and formulating relevant policies.