Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Tourism Ecological Security in the Old Revolutionary Region of the Dabie Mountains from 2001 to 2020

Abstract

Tourism ecological security is an important basis for measuring the realization of the “double carbon” goal of regional tourism. Based on the drivers, pressures, state, impact and response model of intervention (DPSIR), an evaluation index system of tourism ecological security in the old revolutionary region of the Dabie Mountains is constructed. The entropy technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, spatial variation model, standard deviation ellipse model and gray dynamic model are used to explore the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of the tourism ecological security level in the old revolutionary region of the Dabie Mountains from 2001 to 2020, and to forecast its future spatial development pattern. The study shows that (1) the average value in tourism ecological security in that region is 0.3153. Moreover, the comprehensive index increased from 0.2296 in 2001 to 0.4302 in 2020, which shows a steady improvement. The security status has improved from insecure to critically secure; (2) the number of municipalities that are insecure or relatively insecure in the region is gradually decreasing, while the number of municipalities that are located within critically secure and relatively secure cities and towns in the region is gradually decreasing. Moreover, an increasing number of cities and towns are critically secure and safe, and the whole region is now in the critical transition period between an average to low level to an average to high level of tourism ecological security; (3) the degree of spatial variation in tourism ecological security is increasing, the features of spatial differentiation are more obvious, and the overall spatial pattern of “Hubei > Henan > Anhui” is presented. (4) The spatial distribution pattern for tourism ecological security is “southeast-northwest”, and the spatial distribution range has undergone the process of “convergence to diffusion”. (5) The spatial distribution pattern in tourism ecological security is “southeast-northwest”, and the spatial distribution range has undergone a process of “convergence to diffusion”. This shows expansion toward the southeast that reflects a certain spatial spillover effect and “convergence” toward the northwest, with no obvious spatial spillover effect.