Fiscal Policy Effects on Private Expenditure for Sustainable Economic Growth: A Panel VAR Study from Selected Developing Countries

Abstract

This study examines the effects of fiscal policy on private expenditure using a panel VAR for the sample of 60 developing countries from 1990 to 2020. The VAR panel model framework was used to focus on the disaggregated government expenditures which included the defense, economic and social expenditure. The main findings showed a positive shock effect of defense expenditure which led to crowding out effect on private expenditure and domestic income. Conversely, economic and social expenditure had the crowding in effect on private consumption and domestic income. To detail out the analysis, the composition of government spending was divided into two, namely productive expenditures and non-productive expenditures. Therefore, the findings indicate that defense expenditure is non-productive since it does not stimulate an increase in private spending and national income while economic expenditure and social expenditure are classified as productive expenditure with the ability to increase economic activity. The policy implication suggests that the government should carefully examine and identify the sectors or composition that have greater potential, capacity and relevance in stimulating sustainable economic growth.