Research on the Evolution of the Economic Spatial Pattern of Urban Agglomeration and Its Influencing Factors, Evidence from the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration of China

Abstract

To investigate the spatial evolution process of economic development in the urban agglomeration and its influencing factors, the network construction method, modified gravity model, geographic detector and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model are used to analyze the intensity of urban association; then, the evolution of economic, spatial pattern and its influencing factors are further discussed, and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration of China from 2005 to 2020 is studied as an example. The results show that: (1) the economically developed zones of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration mainly concentrated in the core cities of Chengdu and the central city of Chongqing, and the region shows an uneven spatial pattern of economic development distribution. (2) The share of economic linkages with the central city of Chengdu and Chongqing as the twin cities is significant, the intensity of Chengdu and its neighboring cities is gradually decreasing, while the central city of Chongqing has increased, but it still has an insufficient influence on the peripheral areas. (3) The intensities and directions of the factors influencing economic development in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration are different. The total output value of the secondary industry, total social fixed asset investment, the number of beds in health institutions, and road freight turnover are significant factors with consistently strong explanatory ability for economic development. The promotion effect of these four significant factors on economic development is mainly concentrated in the eastern and western regions of Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration, while the inhibiting effect is mainly on the cities in the south and north. Based on this study, relevant recommendations are made to promote the coordinated development of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration.