Evolution and Prediction of the Coupling Coordination Degree of Production–Living–Ecological Space Based on Land Use Dynamics in the Daqing River Basin, China

Abstract

Located in China’s Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, the Daqing River Basin has a high economic development level. The natural and social conditions within the basin vary greatly, and the spatial configuration of the Production–Living–Ecological Space (PLES) between different sub-regions is unbalanced, with problems and contradictions in the functions of PLES becoming increasingly prominent. This study constructs a PLES classification system for the Daqing River Basin based on multi-period land use data, simulates the future land use evolution of the basin using the Patch-Generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, calculates the coupling degree (CD) coupling coordination degree (CCD) of PLES from 1992 to 2020, and, under the natural trend development scenario (NT), cropland preservation development scenario (CP), and ecological preservation development scenario (EP) of 2030, quantitatively analyses the historical evolution and future direction of the three-life spatial. The results show that: (1) From 1992 to 2020, the area of living space in the Daqing River Basin has increased significantly, while the area of production space and ecological space has decreased significantly. Compared to NT, CP is beneficial to the maintenance of production space, while the EP is beneficial to the maintenance of ecological space. (2) Globally, the CD and the CCD of PLES in the Daqing River Basin show an increasing trend from 1992 to 2010 and a decreasing trend from 2010 to 2020. In 2030, the CD and the CCD of PLES of the three development scenarios decrease significantly compared to 2020; however, the decrease in CP is slight. (3) By region, from 1992 to 2020, the CCD of PLES in the western and eastern parts of the Daqing River Basin increases relatively more, while the central part increases slightly. Compared to 2020, the CCD of PLES in the central part of the Daqing River Basin is predicted to decrease significantly under NT and EP in 2030, while the decrease is slightly less under CP. In all three scenarios, there are some areas where the CCD of PLES increases in the western areas. This study highlights the internal variability of the spatial evolution of PLES in the basin and focuses on the impact of different future development scenarios on the spatial changes of PLES, which can offer an enlightenment for high-quality development and sustainable territorial spatial planning in the Daqing River Basin.