Numerical Investigation on the Droplet Dispersion inside a Bus and the Infection Risk Prediction

Abstract

COVID-19 can be easily transmitted to passengers by inhaling exhaled droplets from the infected person in a bus. Therefore, studying droplet dispersion would provide further insight into the mechanism of virus transmission and predict the risk of infection among passengers on a bus. In this research, a bus equipped with air-conditioning was employed as the research object. To determine the dispersion path, concentration distribution, and escape time of the droplets, computational fluid dynamic (CFD) was applied to simulate the flow field and the droplets’ dispersion. The effect of the air supply rate, the location of vents, and the location of infected persons on the dispersion were discussed. Based on the distribution of droplets in the cabin calculated by CFD, a superposition method was used to determine the number of virus particles inhaled by every individual passenger over a four-hour journey. Then, infection risk was assessed by the Wells-Riley equation for all the passengers in the cabin after the whole journey. The results show that the distribution of droplets in the cabin is greatly influenced by the location of the infected person, and the airflow pattern is highly associated with the air supply rate and the location of vents. The infection risk of passengers located at the droplet dispersion path and the distance from the infected persons less than 2.2 m is over 10%. The increase in the air supply rate could speed up the spread of the droplets but at the same time, it could reduce the infection risk.