An Automatic Partition Time-Varying Markov Model for Reliability Evaluation

Author:

Kou Linlin,Chu Baiqing,Chen Yan,Qin Yong

Abstract

As the service time of mechanical devices is getting longer and longer, the safe and reliability evaluation during operation is highlighted. Moreover, real-time reliability evaluation with consideration of multi-state performance degradation becomes increasingly important nowadays, since the consequences of sudden failures are more unacceptable than ever before. The Markov process is a commonly used model in multi-state reliability evaluation. However, little research of the Markov model can deal with multi-source monitoring data and time-varying properties of device performance degradation, as well as the scientific state number determination. In this article, a real-time reliability evaluation model based on automatic partition and the time-varying Markov chain is proposed to solve the problems of the scientific state number selection and time-varying properties description with the state transition matrix of the Markov process, together with taking advantage of multi-source information. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on the bearing with life-long vibration and temperature data. It shows that the proposed automatic partition time-varying Markov model can decide the state number automatically according to the trend of life-long data, and evaluate real-time reliability based on equipment operating hours and operating status. The result of predicted remaining useful life obtained by the proposed model is more accurate, and it also shows great superiority in conformity with reality.

Funder

Beijing Mass Transit Railway Operation Corp. LTD.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes,Computer Science Applications,Process Chemistry and Technology,General Engineering,Instrumentation,General Materials Science

Cited by 5 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Optimal selection and analysis of microgrid energy system using Markov process;Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments;2024-02

2. Hidden Markov Model Based Updatable Reliability Assessment for Partially Monitored Systems;2023 5th International Conference on System Reliability and Safety Engineering (SRSE);2023-10-20

3. Edge-based Sensors Network for Critical Object Monitoring: Reliability Models Considering the Location of Failed Sensors;2023 13th International Conference on Dependable Systems, Services and Technologies (DESSERT);2023-10-13

4. Issues Related to Power Supply Reliability in Integrated Electronic Security Systems Operated in Buildings and Vast Areas;Energies;2023-04-10

5. Semi-Markov approach for reliability modelling of light utility vehicles;Eksploatacja i Niezawodność – Maintenance and Reliability;2023-03-05

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