CO2 Emission Reduction Potential of Road Transport to Achieve Carbon Neutrality in China

Abstract

Under the targets of peaking CO2 emissions and carbon neutrality in China, it is a matter of urgency to reduce the CO2 emissions of road transport. To explore the CO2 emission reduction potential of road transport, this study proposes eight policy scenarios: the business-as-usual (BAU), clean electricity (CE), fuel economy improvement (FEI), shared autonomous vehicles (SAV), CO2 emission trading (CET) (with low, medium, and high carbon prices), and comprehensive (CS) scenarios. The road transport CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2060 in these scenarios are calculated based on the bottom-up method and are evaluated in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). The Log-Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method is employed to analyze the contribution of each factor to road transport CO2 emission reduction in each scenario. The results show that CO2 emissions of road transport will peak at 1419.5 million tonnes in 2033 under the BAU scenario. In contrast, the peaks of road transport CO2 emissions in the CE, SAV, FEI, CET-LCP, CET-MCP, CET-HCP, and CS scenarios are decreasing and occur progressively earlier. Under the CS scenario with the greatest CO2 emission reduction potential, CO2 emissions of road transport will peak at 1200.37 million tonnes in 2023 and decrease to 217.73 million tonnes by 2060. Fuel structure and fuel economy contribute most to the emission reduction in all scenarios. This study provides possible pathways toward low-carbon road transport for the goal of carbon neutrality in China.