The Influence of Flock Variation, Sample Size, Flock Size and Mean Egg Count on the Accuracy and Precision of the Estimated Mean Egg Count

Abstract

The control of parasitic nematode infection in sheep and other animals is threatened by the evolution of drug resistance in parasite populations. One recommendation to delay the onset of drug resistance is to estimate the flock mean faecal egg counts by sampling a subpopulation and to treat sheep only when egg counts are high. However, there is little research on the accuracy and precision of estimates of the flock mean obtained from samples. In silico sampling was used to quantify the influence of flock variation, sample size, flock size and mean egg count on the accuracy and precision of the estimated mean egg count. Commonly used and recommended sampling schemes gave alarmingly imprecise estimates of the true flock means. Simply providing a point estimate of the flock egg count can be seriously misleading. Therefore, quantiles were provided for the proportion of estimates in a plausible scenario that is likely to require treatment. It may be more informative to use these quantiles to predict the probability that the true flock mean is sufficiently high to consider treatment.