Impact of Climate Factors and Human Activities on Water Resources in the Aral Sea Basin

Abstract

The Aral Sea in Central Asia plays an essential role in the socio-economic development of the region. During the last six decades, there has been remarkable changes observed in the water level and areal extent of the Aral Sea Basin; however, the causes behind these changes are unclear. This study quantifies the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic drivers on Aral Sea and the contributions made by these drivers to the variations observed in the Aral Sea Basin. The spatial and temporal seasonal variations in groundwater budget have been analyzed using the total water storage (TWS) of the basin from 2002 to 2015. The results from this study revealed significant increases in the the mean air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration rate from 1960 to 2015 in the Aral Sea Basin. The TWS time-series shows a statistically significant declining trend of about 2 to 4 cm per year presented by the surface water storage. Based on the average monthly values of TWS, March 2005 presented the highest anomaly ~7.85 cm, while October 2008 showed the lowest anomaly ~8.22 cm between 2002 to 2015. The groundwater level indicates a small increasing trend of approximately 0.05 cm/year during the study period. Furthermore, the negative relationship between water level, climatic, and anthropogenic factors showed that these factors projected critical impact on the water level fluctuations within the Aral Sea Basin.