Climate Change, Agriculture, and Biodiversity: How Does Shifting Agriculture Affect Habitat Availability?

Abstract

Models show that climate change is likely to push agricultural production in the US region known as the Corn Belt northward in coming decades. The economic and social impacts of this northward shift have received extensive attention, but its environmental impacts, such as effects on biodiversity, have received less focus. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent and distribution of grassland-type habitat that is vulnerable to a northward-shifting Corn Belt. To analyze this question, geographic shifts in suitable climate conditions for the dominant crop, corn (Zea mays), were modelled. The amount and distribution of uncultivated (potential habitat) land cover classes was then calculated and mapped in current and future (2050) regions suitable for corn. In currently-suitable areas, the degree of climate suitability positively predicted the dominance of corn in the landscape and negatively predicted grasslands. Areas likely to become climatically suited for corn production contained modest amounts of grassland and herbaceous wetland, most of it privately held and lacking protected status. If economic incentives for corn remain strong, pressure to further simplify the landscape and further reduce habitat resources will likely increase in the coming decades. While global concern for biodiversity and habitat conservation is growing, this study raises the question of how wealthy countries are taking action, or not, to reduce further land conversion and habitat losses.