Agricultural Drought Monitoring Using an Enhanced Soil Water Deficit Index Derived from Remote Sensing and Model Data Merging

Abstract

Droughts present substantial challenges to agriculture, food security, and water resources. Employing a drought index based on soil moisture dynamics is a common and effective approach for agricultural drought monitoring. However, the precision of a drought index heavily relies on accurate soil moisture and soil hydraulic parameters. This study leverages remote sensing soil moisture data from the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) series products and model-generated soil moisture data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The extended triple collocation (ETC) method was applied to merge these datasets from 1992 to 2018, resulting in enhanced accuracy by 28% and 15% compared to the CCI and VIC soil moisture, respectively. Furthermore, this research establishes field capacity and a wilting point map using multiple soil datasets and pedotransfer functions, facilitating the development of an enhanced Soil Water Deficit Index (SWDI) based on merged soil moisture, field capacity, and wilting points. The findings reveal that the proposed enhanced SWDI achieves a higher accuracy in detecting agricultural drought events (probability of detection = 0.98) and quantifying their severity (matching index = 0.33) compared to an SWDI based on other soil moisture products. Moreover, the enhanced SWDI exhibits superior performance in representing drought-affected crop areas (correlation coefficient = 0.88), outperforming traditional drought indexes such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (correlation coefficient = 0.51), the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percent Index (correlation coefficient = 0.81), and the Soil Moisture Index (correlation coefficient = 0.83). The enhanced SWDI effectively captures the spatiotemporal dynamics of a drought, supporting more accurate agricultural drought monitoring and management strategies.