Development Trend and Driving Factors of Agricultural Chemical Fertilizer Efficiency in China

Abstract

In China, a high input of chemical fertilizers is currently required for a relatively low increase in agricultural production, and this has resulted in prominent nonpoint source pollution and problems related to the quality of agricultural products. These phenomena threaten China’s implementation of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 2 (SDG-2). To explore agricultural chemical fertilizer efficiency and the factors driving the growth in chemical fertilizer use in China, as based on an international comparative analysis of China’s chemical fertilizer input, the development trend in the application level and the efficiency in the use of chemical fertilizer in China were subject to time series analysis, and the factors influencing change were identified and analyzed using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI). The results show that: (1) The gap in agricultural chemical fertilizer efficiency is still large when comparing China with modern agricultural countries, and excessive fertilizer input is still a major problem. (2) The continuous growth in the total amount of chemical fertilizer applied in China during the past 18 years has contributed to the increase in chemical fertilizer application intensity, which provided a cumulative contribution of 85.52%, with smaller contributions from the planting structure and crop sown area. Based on the analysis of fertilizer application, the chemical fertilizer application intensity of the main grain crops was the most significant factor, accounting for about a 40.00% cumulative contribution. (3) Since 2015, the total amount of chemical fertilizers has been reduced through gradually improving the utilization rate of chemical fertilizers, reducing the application intensity of chemical fertilizers, and implementing the fallow rotation system and other measures. Of these, the reduction in application intensity was the most effective at reducing the overall amount of applied fertilizer. To meet the target for achieving sustainable agricultural development, China must still reduce its use of chemical fertilizers by at least 21.80 million tons. Based on the results of current measures and international experience, some suggestions for reducing fertilizer usage are provided.