Exploring Delay Propagation Causality in Various Airport Networks with Attention-Weighted Recurrent Graph Convolution Method

Abstract

Exploring the delay causality between airports and comparing the delay propagation patterns across different airport networks is critical to better understand delay propagation mechanisms and provide effective delay mitigation strategies. A novel attention-based recurrent graph convolutional neural network is proposed to identify the hidden delay causality relationship among airports in three different airport networks of China. The selected three airport networks show great heterogeneities in topological characteristics, such as average intensity, modularity and eigenvector centrality. The modeling results indicate that the identified delay causality networks of three airport networks are greatly varied in terms of complexity, delay propagation distance and efficiency. Moreover, the delay state of each airport is categorized into three levels, and the delay state transition of the three networks is explored. The results indicate that delay state transition in the North China Control Area exhibits an obvious bidirectional transition form that mainly propagates between the large-degree airports and small-degree airports, while severe delays of some hub airports account for a relatively large proportion in the other two networks. The results of this study could better reveal the delay propagation mechanism among airports and help airport operators develop effective strategies to alleviate flight delays and improve airport operation efficiency.