Queue-Based Modeling of the Aircraft Arrival Process at a Single Airport

Abstract

This paper proposes data-driven queuing models and solutions to reduce arrival time delays originating from aircraft arrival processing bottlenecks at Tokyo International Airport. A data-driven analysis was conducted using two years of radar tracks and flight plans from 2016 and 2017. This analysis helps not only to understand the bottlenecks and operational strategies of air traffic controllers, but also to develop mathematical models to predict arrival delays resulting from increased, future aircraft traffic. The queue-based modeling approach suggests that one potential solution is to expand the realization of time-based operations, efficiently shifting from traffic flow control to time-based arrival management. Furthermore, the proposed approach estimates the most effective range of transition points, which is a key requirement for designing extended arrival management systems while offering automation support to air traffic controllers.