Estimating the Cost of Wildlife Strikes in Australian Aviation Using Random Forest Modeling

Abstract

Wildlife strikes in aviation represent a serious economic concern; however, in some jurisdictions, the costs associated with this phenomenon are not collected or shared. This hampers the industry’s ability to quantify the risk and assess the potential benefit from investment in effective wildlife hazard management activities. This research project has applied machine learning to the problem by training a random forest algorithm on wildlife strike cost data collected in the United States and predicting the costs associated with wildlife strikes in Australia. This method estimated a mean annual figure of AUD 7.9 million in repair costs and AUD 4.8 million in other costs from 2008 to 2017. It also provided year-on-year estimates showing variability through the reporting period that was not correlated with strike report numbers. This research provides a baseline figure for the Australian aviation industry to assess and review current and future wildlife hazard management practices. It also provides a technique for other countries, airlines, or airports to estimate the cost of wildlife strikes within their jurisdictions or operational environments.