Geostationary Orbital Debris Collision Hazard after a Collision

Abstract

Many space objects are densely distributed in the geostationary (GEO) band, and the long-term impact of the collision of GEO spacecraft and space debris on the GEO environment has attracted more and more attention. After summarizing the advantages and disadvantages of the long-term evolution model based on the “Cube” collision probability calculation model, the “Grid” model, a long-term evolution model especially suitable for GEO band, was established. For four types of collision and disintegration events, the “Grid” model was used to study the space environment in the GEO band after collisions between GEO spacecraft and space debris. Future collisions were simulated, and the number of space objects in the next 100 years was counted. Once space debris and massive spacecraft were completely disintegrated after collision, the number of space objects and the collision probability increased sharply, and this caused a collision cascading syndrome. Even if there was no initial disintegration event, collision and disintegration events occurred in the long-term evolution of the GEO band, which led to an increase in the number of space objects. However, the collision probability was much lower, and the number of space objects grew much more slowly without the initial collision.