The Post-Pandemic Recovery of Transport Activity: Emerging Mobility Patterns and Repercussions on Future Evolution

Abstract

The expectations for post-COVID recovery of transport activity point towards a gradual return to normality, once the pandemic is under control and mobility restrictions end. The shock to society and economy has, however, caused a number of behavioural changes that can influence the evolution of the transport sector. We analyse the main factors that can influence future supply and demand and explore how they may affect trip generation, distribution and modal split in passenger transport. We combine several conventional and innovative data sources with a detailed strategic transport model at the EU level, in order to present quantitative estimates under various scenarios. New remote work patterns or personal risk avoidance attitudes can lead to increased levels of car ownership and use. Public policy priorities in the aftermath of the pandemic would need to address the emerging challenges and adopt measures that can sustain the shift to active travel, support public transport, railways and aviation and stimulate innovation in transport technologies and services.