Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Economic Resilience: Evidence from Resource-Based Cities in China

Abstract

In the context of sustainable development, economic resilience provides a new research perspective for resource-based cities to resist external shocks and risks. The purpose of this study is to explore the characteristics and determinants of resource-based cities’ economic resilience in China, and to provide effective policy recommendations. This paper constructs an index system to measure the economic resilience of 114 resource-based cities in China from 2005 to 2019. This paper uses spatial analysis methods and the Theil index to reveal spatiotemporal evolution and regional disparities. Then, it uses the spatial Durbin model to reveal influencing factors from the perspective of spatial spillover effects. The conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the economic resilience of resource-based cities in China shows a growth trend. The spatial polarization of economic resilience in resource-based cities has intensified, showing a distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west and northeast, with the cold spot of economic resilience moving from the southwest to the northeast. Secondly, the distribution of economic resilience in the eight economic regions is spatially heterogeneous. Inter-regional disparity is the main source of different economic resilience in the eight major economic regions. Thirdly, market potential and talent development potential are the direct drivers of economic resilience in resource-based cities. Nationalization, industrial specialization, and fiscal risk inhibit the development of economic resilience. Resource dependence not only hinders local innovation and transformation ability, but also negatively impacts the economic resilience of surrounding cities. Therefore, resource-based cities need to promote the diversification of industrial structures, and ensure resource allocation through the combination of the market and the government. At the same time, the government should build a new mechanism for coordinated regional development and open up the enclave economic model.