Application of Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in Flood Forecasting of Xun River in Hanjiang River Basin

Abstract

Accurate projection of floods is of great significance to safeguard economic and social development as well as people’s life and property. The development of hydrological models can improve the level of flood projection, however, the numerous uncertainties in the models limit the projection accuracy. By adding observations to correct the operation of prediction models, the accuracy can be improved to some extent. In this paper, taking the Xun River, of the Hanjiang River Basin in China, as the research object, combined with the soil moisture satellite data obtained by the soil moisture active and passive satellite (SMAP), the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) algorithm was used to assimilate the upper soil water content (WU) of the Xinanjiang model. In addition, based on the simultaneous assimilation of state variables and parameters, two improved assimilation schemes were proposed here, namely, the augmented ensemble Kalman filter (AEnKF) scheme and the dual ensemble Kalman filter (DEnKF) scheme. The results showed that compared with the WU assimilation scheme, the simultaneous assimilation of parameters and WU improved the prediction ability of the Xinanjiang model to a greater extent. The two improved schemes had similar effects on flood prediction accuracy, and improved the overall Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) from 0.725 for non-assimilated, and 0.758 for assimilated WU, to 0.781. Among them, AEnKF and DEnKF schemes, respectively, improved the NSE by 10.1% and 11% at maximum. This study demonstrated that the application of data assimilation for the Xun River effectively improved the flood forecast accuracy of the Xinanjiang model, which will provide a reference basis and technical support for future flood prevention and mitigation and flood projection in this basin.