Scenario Analysis for GHG Emission Reduction Potential of the Building Sector for New City in South Korea

Abstract

A new government report on climate change shows that global emissions of greenhouse gases have increased to very high levels despite various policies to reduce climate change. Building energy accounts for 40% of the world’s energy consumption and accounts for 33% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions. This study applied the LEAP (Long-range energy alternatives planning) model and Bass diffusion method for predicting the total energy consumption and GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions from the residential and commercial building sector of Sejong City in South Korea. Then, using the Bass diffusion model, three scenarios were analyzed (REST: Renewable energy supply target, BES: Building energy saving, BEP: Building energy policy) for GHG reduction. The GHG emissions for Sejong City for 2015–2030 were analyzed, and the past and future GHG emissions of the city were predicted in a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. In the REST scenario, the GHG emissions would attain a 24.5% reduction and, in the BES scenario, the GHG emissions would attain 12.81% reduction by 2030. Finally, the BEP scenario shows the potential for a 19.81% GHG reduction. These results could be used to guide the planning and development of the new city.