Risk-Based Planning of Diagnostic Testing of Turbines Operating with Increased Flexibility

Abstract

An increase in the share of renewable sources in the energy mix makes coal-fired power plants operate in new conditions that require more dynamic operation and adequate flexibility. The frequency of the power unit start-ups increases and so does the frequency of changes in loads. This intensifies some life consumption processes, such as low-cycle fatigue and crack propagation in the turbine components. Further operation of power unit elements that have already been in service for a long time has to be supplemented with new diagnostic and repair procedures that take into account the intensification of life consumption processes. This article gives predictions about the propagation rate of potential cracks in the turbine rotor for different scenarios of the power unit’s long-term operation. A method is presented of rational selection of the diagnostic testing time based on risk analysis. The method is used to estimate the optimal interval after which diagnostic testing of a 200 MW turbine rotor should be carried out. Changes in the rotor steel crack toughness are evaluated based on the results of testing of microspecimens cut out of the rotor. Turbines with more frequent start-ups and shorter start-up times necessitate performance of diagnostic testing of the rotor central bore after about 12 years of turbine operation.