A Backcasting Analysis toward a 100% Renewable Energy Transition by 2040 for Off-Grid Islands

Abstract

The rapid increase in energy consumption results from population growth and technological advancement, while economic growth also relies heavily on the availability of energy. As fossil fuels become scarcer and greenhouse gas emissions increase, renewable energy sources are regarded as practical solutions to meet increasing energy demands. This study aims to develop a sustainable energy transition pathway for off-grid island communities in the Philippines. It adopts the concept of backcasting analysis, focusing on the demand and supply side of the energy transition. The transition considers three milestones: business as usual (BAU), minimal transition scenario (MTS), and absolute transition scenario (ATS). The techno-enviro-economic analysis is performed for each milestone to determine the optimal energy resource mix while addressing the three dimensions of the Energy Trilemma: energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability. The approach is implemented in three off-grid island municipalities in Palawan, Philippines: Araceli, Balabac, and Cuyo. The results suggest that the optimal electrification configuration for each island at the MTS is a hybrid system consisting of a diesel generator and solar photovoltaics with batteries, while at the ATS, it is a hybrid system of solar photovoltaics and wind with batteries. In addition, greenhouse gas emissions are reduced by 79.7% in Araceli, 78.7% in Balabac, and 41.2% in Cuyo from the BAU scenario to MTS. The actors involved in said transition are identified. A transitional pathway can be seen as a strategic plan to achieve the desired goal: to have a sustainable energy transition.