Dynamic Change and Attribution Regarding Fractional Vegetation Coverage in Mengdong River Basin

Abstract

The situation of rocky desertification in the southwestern part of China is very serious and has been included as one of three major ecological problems. In this study, using Landsat images as the data sources, we estimated the fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) in the Mengdong River Basin in the Hunan Province over the past 40 years, analyzed its spatio-temporal variation characteristics, and explored the driving mechanism (climate and anthropogenic) using the Mann–Kendall, Hurst index, and partial correlation methods. Specifically, the impact of ecological engineering on the recovery of vegetation cover in rocky desertification areas was analyzed and discussed in this study. The results demonstrate the following: (1) The changes in FVC in the study area before and after the rocky desertification management ecological project differed significantly, with a very small change in the rate of change in the mean value of FVC between 1987 and 1999 (<0.1%), while the FVC had a significant linear growth trend between 2000 and 2022 (>0.9%). (2) The Hurst index of FVC ranged from −0.233 to 2.476, with an average value of 0.864. The area with an H value greater than 0.75 accounted for 80.12%, indicating that the future trend in the vast majority of regions will develop in accordance with the current change trend. (3) The average partial correlation coefficients between FVC and precipitation and between FVC and temperature were −0.02 and 0.27, respectively, showing that FVC is more sensitive to temperature than precipitation. The combination of climate change and human activities is the main cause of FVC change. The contributions of climate change (precipitation and temperature) and human activities to FVC variation are about 30% and 70%, respectively. Ecological restoration projects have a significant positive effect on the recovery of vegetation in rocky desertification areas. The results of this study are intended to provide a scientific basis for analyzing the characteristics of vegetation restoration in existing rocky desertification areas and ecological management in future rocky desertification areas.