Integrated Hazard Modeling for Simulating Torrential Stream Response to Flash Flood Events

Abstract

This study aims to monitor the flash flood response of Vidor/Wadore hill torrent in Pakistan by the integration of Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model PCSWMM (hydrologic) and HEC-RAS 5.x (hydraulic) models. The method leverages remote sensing and GIS derive estimates of measured and inferred parameters of Vidor rural catchment to quantify the flash flood events of the last four years: 2014–2017. The calibration of the PCSWMM is performed using the sensitivity-based radio tuning calibration (SRTC) tool. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and relative error (RE) values were found between 0.75–0.97, 0.94–0.98, and −0.22–−0.09 respectively. The statistical indicators prove the accuracy of PCSWMM for rural catchments. The runoff response of Vidor torrent is also analyzed for 0.5/12.7, 1.5/38.1, and 2.0/50.8-inch/mm rainfall hyetographs. The generated hydrographs are used to simulate 2D-module in HEC-RAS 5.x for floodplain demarcation in the piedmont area. The accuracy of the flood extent is analyzed using spatial overlay analogy in the ArcGIS environment by comparing simulated and historically available flood extents. The simulated flood extent shows 76% accuracy with historic flood extent. The impact of flash flood events shows wheat, maize, and fruit orchards are the most effected agriculture in piedmont area. The results revealed that the integration of hydrological, hydraulic, and geospatial modeling approaches can be used to model a full picture of catchment response during flash flood events.