Habitat Analysis of Endangered Korean Long-Tailed Goral (Naemorhedus caudatus raddeanus) with Weather Forecasting Model

Abstract

Climate simulation is often used for evaluation of the sustainability of a species in global scale but not applicable for our study because the global data is too coarse to be used in small and fragmented habitat areas. We examined a weather forecasting model for the habitat analysis of the endangered species of the Korean long-tailed goral (Naemorhedus caudatus raddeanus). The weather research forecasting (WRF) model is implemented to downscale global climate data for a small fragmented habitat of the goral. The coordinates of goral fecal samples were collected during winter 2005 and summer 2006 using GPS and the goral habitat was set with the elevations of fecal samples mostly found. The atmospheric parameters of the habitat were then simulated by WRF and defined as the atmospheric signature of the goral suitable habitat. A series of temperature changes was then projected for the period from 2010s to 2090s to evaluate the change of the habitat for summer (June) and winter (December) seasons. As a result, the suitable habitat of the Korean long-tailed goral would be significantly declined and almost disappeared in the 2070s for summer or 2050s for winter under the climate scenarios of RCP 8.5 by IPCC.