EcoQBNs: First Application of Ecological Modeling with Quantum Bayesian Networks

Abstract

A recent advancement in modeling was the development of quantum Bayesian networks (QBNs). QBNs generally differ from BNs by substituting traditional Bayes calculus in probability tables with the quantum amplification wave functions. QBNs can solve a variety of problems which are unsolvable by, or are too complex for, traditional BNs. These include problems with feedback loops and temporal expansions; problems with non-commutative dependencies in which the order of the specification of priors affects the posterior outcomes; problems with intransitive dependencies constituting the circular dominance of the outcomes; problems in which the input variables can affect each other, even if they are not causally linked (entanglement); problems in which there may be >1 dominant probability outcome dependent on small variations in inputs (superpositioning); and problems in which the outcomes are nonintuitive and defy traditional probability calculus (Parrondo’s paradox and the violation of the Sure Thing Principle). I present simple examples of these situations illustrating problems in prediction and diagnosis, and I demonstrate how BN solutions are infeasible, or at best require overly-complex latent variable structures. I then argue that many problems in ecology and evolution can be better depicted with ecological QBN (EcoQBN) modeling. The situations that fit these kinds of problems include noncommutative and intransitive ecosystems responding to suites of disturbance regimes with no specific or single climax condition, or that respond differently depending on the specific sequence of the disturbances (priors). Case examples are presented on the evaluation of habitat conditions for a bat species, representing state-transition models of a boreal forest under disturbance, and the entrainment of auditory signals among organisms. I argue that many current ecological analysis structures—such as state-and-transition models, predator–prey dynamics, the evolution of symbiotic relationships, ecological disturbance models, and much more—could greatly benefit from a QBN approach. I conclude by presenting EcoQBNs as a nascent field needing the further development of the quantum mathematical structures and, eventually, adjuncts to existing BN modeling shells or entirely new software programs to facilitate model development and application.