Using Multiple Discriminant Analysis for the Assignment of Initial Water Entitlements at River Basin-Level under the Strictest Water Resources Management System Constraints in China

Abstract

From the perspective of system science, in China, an assignment system of initial water entitlements at the river basin-level can be divided into two subsystems, namely the assignment subsystem of initial water entitlements at the province-level and government reserved water at the river basin-level. Under the new backdrop of implementing the strictest water resources management system (SWRMS), we propose a novel methodological framework for addressing the in-coordination of pre-allocation plans between two subsystems for Lake Tai Basin, China. First, considering total water use, pollutant discharge and water use efficiency, we establish several criteria for the discriminant analysis of pre-allocation plans. Whilst based on these criteria, we built a comprehensive discriminant criterion to further verify coupling and coordination of pre-allocation plans between two subsystems. Second, according to uncoordinated or less coordinated situations, we propose adjusted strategies to decide the direction (increase or decrease) of the adjustment for pre-allocation plans of two subsystems. Third, taking coupling and coordination as optimal objectives, and considering total water use, total pollutant discharge and water use efficiency as constraints, we built an adjusted decision-making model for the assignment of initial water entitlements of the basin. Finally, the results of this novel discriminant analysis methodology that were applied to the Lake Tai Basin show that under the water frequency of 75%, in the planning year 2030, Jiangsu Province is assigned the most initial water entitlements at the province-level, followed by Shanghai and Zhejiang Province. In this paper, results are generally in accordance with pilot plans released by China’s Ministry of Water Resources. Apart from pilot plans, our findings also show the assignment plans for government reserved water at the river basin-level, which is coordinated and coupled with assignment plans for initial water entitlements at the province-level. The novel methodological framework of this paper can also be applied as a reference to other similar river basin.