The State of Dark Coniferous Forests on the East European Plain Due to Climate Change

Abstract

As a result of global climate changes, negative processes have been recorded in the coniferous forests of the Northern Hemisphere. Similar processes are observed in the Urals, including in Udmurtia. In the course of this research, archival analysis methods were used, as well as field research methods. In the process of analyzing archival materials in the Urals, a reduction of spruce forests was observed. If in the 20th century the share of spruce forests in the region was 50%, then in the 21th century it decreased to 35%. As a result of this research, it was revealed that the most unfavorable sanitary condition was recorded in the boreal–subboreal zone of Udmurtia, with a sanitary condition index of 3.2 (from 2.62 to 3.73). The main reason for the unfavorable sanitary condition of spruce forests was the vital activity of Ips typographus L. According to our research, in 11 sample plots out of 18, a high score for sanitary condition was associated with the vital activity of bark beetles. The correlation coefficient of the index of the sanitary condition of plantings and the number of individuals of Picea obovata Ledeb. affected by Ips typographus L. was0.93. Bark beetle activity has increased in the 21th century, which is associated with changing climatic factors. Unstable precipitation over recent years (differences of more than 100 mm) and an average temperature increase of 1.2 °C were observed in the region. The most significant increase in temperature over the past 10 years was observed in winter, which in turn affected the high survival rate of insect pests.