Dispersal Kernel Type Highly Influences Projected Relationships for Plant Disease Epidemic Severity When Outbreak and At-Risk Populations Differ in Susceptibility

Abstract

In silico study of biologically invading organisms provide a means to evaluate the complex and potentially cryptic factors that can influence invasion success in scenarios where empirical studies would be difficult, if not impossible, to conduct. I used a disease event simulation program to evaluate whether the two most frequently used types of plant pathogen dispersal kernels for epidemiological projections would provide complementary or divergent projections of epidemic severity when the hosts in a disease outbreak differed from the hosts in the at-risk population in the degree of susceptibility. Exponential dispersal kernel simulations of wheat stripe rust (Pucciniastriiformis var trittici) predicted a relatively strong and dominant influence of the at-risk population on the end epidemic severity regardless of outbreak disease levels. Simulations using a modified power law dispersal kernel gave projections that varied depending on the amount of disease in the outbreak and some interactions were counter-intuitive and opposite of the exponential dispersal kernel projections. Although relatively straightforward, the disease spread simulations in the present study strongly suggest that a more biologically accurate dispersal kernel generates complexity that would not be revealed by an exponential dispersal gradient and that selecting a less accurate dispersal kernel may obscure important interactions during biological invasions.