Serial Dynamics, Spatial Spillover and Common Factors of Carbon Emission Intensity in China’s Bohai Economic Rim

Abstract

The Bohai Economic Rim (BER) is an important economic Rim in north China. Since the implementation of the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei Coordinated Strategy in 2014, the provinces have become more closely connected in economic development and environmental governance. This paper investigates the dynamics and spillover effects of carbon emission intensity in the BER before and after removing the common factors, and analyzes the reasons for the difference. In this study, the serial dynamics characteristics and spatial spillover effects of the carbon emission intensity of provinces were analyzed in the BER provinces between 2000 and 2019. Based on the Moran index and the spatial Durbin model, the provincial carbon emission intensity and influence factors were examined. CD (Correlation Dependence) tests were then applied, with the test results indicating that the carbon intensities had strong spatial correlation. Therefore, the dynamic spatial Durbin common factor model was introduced, characterizing the dynamic characteristics of the carbon emission intensity and the spatial spillover effect in the BER. The consequences obtained are as follows: (1) The carbon emission intensities in the BER were influenced by the energy intensity, urbanization level, economic growth, and population density. There was a significant spatial spillover effect between a province and its neighboring provinces. (2) The carbon emission intensities of the provinces exhibited a strong correlation. (3) The reason for the strong carbon emission intensity correlation is associated with environmental protection policies that are similar and the common external development environment. Combining the above findings and study conclusions, the authors offer the following policy suggestions: (1) optimize the energy structure; (2) improve the industrial structure; (3) construct a regional collaborative governance mechanism for carbon emissions; and (4) formulate a precise policy. This study is crucial for reducing regional carbon emissions, promoting the transition to a green economy and society, and achieving the “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutrality” targets in China.