Underreporting of Cases in the COVID-19 Outbreak of Borriana (Spain) during Mass Gathering Events in March 2020: A Cross-Sectional Study

Abstract

Determining the number of cases of an epidemic is the first function of epidemiological surveillance. An important underreporting of cases was observed in many locations during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. To estimate this underreporting in the COVID-19 outbreak of Borriana (Valencia Community, Spain) in March 2020, a cross-sectional study was performed in June 2020 querying the public health register. Logistic regression models were used. Of a total of 468 symptomatic COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the outbreak through anti-SARS-CoV-2 serology, 36 cases were reported (7.7%), resulting in an underreporting proportion of 92.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 89.5–94.6%), with 13 unreported cases for every reported case. Only positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction cases were predominantly reported due to a limited testing capacity and following a national protocol. Significant factors associated with underreporting included no medical assistance for COVID-19 disease, with an adjusted odds ratio [aOR] of 10.83 (95% CI 2.49–47.11); no chronic illness, aOR = 2.81 (95% CI 1.28–6.17); middle and lower social classes, aOR = 3.12 (95% CI 1.42–6.85); younger age, aOR = 0.97 (95% CI 0.94–0.99); and a shorter duration of illness, aOR = 0.98 (95% CI 0.97–0.99). To improve the surveillance of future epidemics, new approaches are recommended.