Analysis of the Response of Long-Term Vegetation Dynamics to Climate Variability Using the Pruned Exact Linear Time (PELT) Method and Disturbance Lag Model (DLM) Based on Remote Sensing Data: A Case Study in Guangdong Province (China)

Abstract

The dynamic change and spatial–temporal distribution of vegetation coverage are of great significance for regional ecological evolution, especially in the subtropics and tropics. Identifying the heterogeneity in vegetation activities and its response to climate factors is crucial for projecting ecosystem dynamics. We used long-term (2001–2018) satellite-derived enhanced vegetation index (EVI) datasets and climatic factors to analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation activities in an experimental area in Guangdong Province (China), as well as their links to changes in temperature (TEM), relative humidity (HUM), precipitation (PRE), sunshine duration (SUN), and surface runoff. The pruned exact linear time change point detection method (PELT) and the disturbance lag model (DLM) were used to understand the detailed ecological coverage status and time lag relationships between the EVI and climatic factors. The results indicate the following. (1) At the whole regional scale, a significant overall upward trend in the EVI variation was observed in 2001–2018. More specifically, there were two distinct periods with different trends, which were split by a turning point in 2005. PRE was the main climate-related driver of the rising EVI pre-2005, and the increase in TEM was the main climate factor influencing the forest EVI variation post-2006. (2) A three-month time lag effect was observed in the EVI response to relative humidity. The same phenomenon was found in the sunshine duration factor. (3) The EVI of farmlands (one type of land use) exhibited the largest lags between relative humidity and the sunshine duration factor, followed by grasslands and forests. (4) The comprehensive index of surface runoff could explain the time lags of vegetation activities, and the surface runoff value showed an apparently negative relationship with the vegetation coverage change.