Projection of Future Meteorological Droughts in Lake Urmia Basin, Iran
Author:
Ghazi Babak1ORCID, Dutt Sanjana2, Torabi Haghighi Ali3ORCID
Affiliation:
1. Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Jurija Gagarina 11, 87-100 Toruń, Poland 2. Department of Geomatics and Cartography, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Spatial Management, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Jurija Gagarina 11, 87-100 Toruń, Poland 3. Water, Energy, and Environmental Engineering Research Unit, University of Oulu, Pentti Kaiteran katu 1, P.O. Box 8000, 90014 Oulu, Finland
Abstract
Future changes (2015–2100) in precipitation and meteorological droughts in Lake Urmia Basin were investigated using an average mean ensemble of eight general circulation models (GCMs) with high-resolution datasets in socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In order to project the drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated. Overall, the results revealed that precipitation in Lake Urmia Basin will decrease by 3.21% and 7.18% in the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results based on 6-month-timescale SPI indices projected more “Extremely dry” events in SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The frequency of “Extremely dry” months in SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP1-2.6 is expected to increase by 14, 7, 14, 10, 5, 14, and 7 months for the Mahabad, Maragheh, Saqez, Sarab, Tabriz, Takab, and Urmia stations, respectively. In contrast, the frequency of “Extremely wet” months will decline for all stations in Lake Urmia Basin. The results of this study provide useful insight for considering drought prevention measures to be implemented in advance for Lake Urmia Basin, which is currently experiencing various environmental issues.
Subject
Water Science and Technology,Aquatic Science,Geography, Planning and Development,Biochemistry
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