Updated Predictive Models for Permanent Seismic Displacement of Slopes for Greece and Their Effect on Probabilistic Landslide Hazard Assessment

Abstract

Earthquake-triggered landslides have been widely recognized as a catastrophic hazard in mountainous regions. They may lead to direct consequences, such as property losses and casualties, as well as indirect consequences, such as disruption of the operation of lifeline infrastructures and delays in emergency response actions after earthquakes. Regional landslide hazard assessment is a useful tool to identify areas that are vulnerable to earthquake-induced slope instabilities and design prioritization schemes towards more detailed site-specific slope stability analyses. A widely used method to assess the seismic performance of slopes is by calculating the permanent downslope sliding displacement that is expected during ground shaking. Nathan M. Newmark was the first to propose a method to estimate the permanent displacement of a rigid body sliding on an inclined plane in 1965. The expected permanent displacement for a slope using the sliding block method is implemented by either selecting a suite of representative earthquake ground motions and computing the mean and standard deviation of the displacement or by using analytical equations that correlate the permanent displacement with ground motion intensity measures, the slope’s yield acceleration and seismological characteristics. Increased interest has been observed in the development of such empirical models using strong motion databases over the last decades. It has been almost a decade since the development of the latest empirical model for the prediction of permanent ground displacement for Greece. Since then, a significant amount of strong motion data have been collected. In the present study, several nonlinear regression-based empirical models are developed for the prediction of the permanent seismic displacements of slopes, including various ground motion intensity measures. Moreover, single-hidden layer Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models are developed to demonstrate their capability of simplifying the construction of empirical models. Finally, implementation of the produced modes based on Probabilistic Landslide Hazard Assessment is undertaken, and their effect on the resulting hazard curves is demonstrated and discussed.