Can Fujian Achieve Carbon Peak and Pollutant Reduction Targets before 2030? Case Study of 3E System in Southeastern China Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

Fujian Province has entered the golden period of industrialization and rapid economic development, and its economy and society are undergoing significant changes. An unreasonable industrial structure and rapid growth of energy consumption will result in a high pressure of carbon peak and environmental pollution in Fujian Province in 2030. How to improve energy efficiency, control environmental pollution, and achieve a carbon peak by 2030 while ensuring economic growth has become the focus of the attention of researchers and relevant policymakers. A disadvantage of the current 3E (Economy–Energy–Environment) system is that it has no quantitative basis for the selection of variables and no combined analysis of carbon emissions and environmental pollution, which is not conducive to paying attention to environmental pollution in the process of achieving carbon peak. Based on the STIRPAT (Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology) model analysis results of environmental pollution and carbon emissions in Fujian Province, this paper established the 3E system model of Fujian Province to simulate three development scenarios and explored the EKC (Environmental Kuznets Curve). The results of the STIRPAT model showed that population, economic structure, and energy structure were the main influencing factors of environmental pollution and carbon emissions in Fujian Province. The 3E system simulation results showed that the current development scenario (scenario one) in Fujian Province is not sustainable, and the carbon peak and pollutant reduction cannot be achieved in 2030. A more stringent development scenario (scenario three) was required to achieve carbon peak and pollutant reduction on schedule. The trend of the carbon emission EKC curve in Fujian Province was different from that of environmental pollution. The carbon emission EKC curve of Fujian Province was a common inverted “U” shape, while the environmental pollution EKC curve had three shapes of “N”, “M,” and inverted “U”. This study can provide a quantitative method for selecting 3E system variables and a new method for establishing the 3E model, and provide a quantitative reference for Fujian Province to develop subsequent policies to control carbon emissions and environmental pollution.