Predicting the Potential Distribution Area of the Platanus orientalis L. in Turkey Today and in the Future

Abstract

Climate conditions throughout the world clearly affect every aspect of the lives of plants, animals, and humans. Platanus orientalis L. (Oriental plane) is an important tree species for the economy, culture, and forest ecosystems. Recent studies indicate that the climatic conditions significantly affect the distribution areas of Platanus orientalis L. This study aims to model the potential geographical distribution of Platanus orientalis L., which has a natural distribution in Turkey, today and in the future. The geographical distribution of Platanus orientalis L. is under pressure from human activities such as intensive agricultural production, changes in riverbanks, and increased urban development and road construction, and its population is in serious decline. The study produced prediction models using presence data belonging to the species, bio-climatic variables and altitude, and the distributions of the species were determined according to two separate global climate change scenarios. The potential distribution areas of Platanus orientalis L. for the periods 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 under the SSP5 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 scenarios were modelled using MaxEnt 3.4.1. The distribution area of the species in Turkey will be negatively affected by climatic changes due to relatively medium and high increases in the temperature. Platanus orientalis L., which is also found in the Mediterranean basin, the region subject to the most intensive climate changes, will face the risk of extinction unless it is able to adapt to these changes. Results on the current and future potential distributions of Platanus orientalis L. in Turkey provide crucial insights into species’ response to climate change, particularly to increases in temperature. Extent and locations of predicted suitable and unchanged areas for the distribution of Platanus orientalis L. can be used for developing strategies in conservation, management, monitoring, and cultivation of Platanus orientalis L. in the face of climate change.