Spatial Fuzzy C-Means Clustering Analysis of U.S. Presidential Election and COVID-19 Related Factors in the Rustbelt States in 2020

Abstract

The rustbelt states play a key role in determining the vote turnout in the U.S. elections. The current study attempts to utilize the spatial fuzzy C-means method to analyze the U.S. presidential election in the rustbelt states in 2020. We intend to explore that the U.S. presidential election had related factors, including COVID-19-related factors, such as the mask-wearing percentage and the COVID-19 death tolls in each county of the rust belt states. Contrary to the related literature, the study uses education level, number of house units, unemployment rate, household income, COVID-19-related factors and the share of Republican’s votes in the presidential election. The results indicate that spatial generalized fuzzy C-means analysis has better clustering results than the C-means clustering method. Moreover, the COVID-19 death toll in each county did not affect the Republican’s vote share in the rustbelt states, while the mask-wearing behavior in some regions had a negative impact on the Republican’s vote share.