A MULTIMOORA-Based Risk Evaluation Approach for CCUS Projects by Utilizing D Numbers Theory

Abstract

As the global climate warms, carbon emissions must be reduced in order to alleviate the human climate crisis. Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is an emerging technology that can reduce carbon emissions. However, most of the CCUS projects have ended in failure. The reason can be attributed to insufficient risk assessment. To this end, the purpose of this study is to construct a comprehensive risk assessment model for CCUS projects. The main body of this research is divided into two parts. First, in order to evaluate the CCUS project, a risk indicator system is constructed. In what follows, a decision-making framework for risk assessment under the D numbers environment is proposed, including two stages of decision-making preparation and decision-making process. The main task of the preparation stage is to gather evaluation experts and collect decision-making information. In the decision-making stage, this paper takes the D numbers theory as the core (acting on the effective expression and fusion of subjective evaluation information), respectively, proposes the method of determining the weight of risk evaluators, the fusion method of decision-making information from different experts, and the comprehensive decision model based on the MULTIMOORA method. In order to verify the effectiveness of the constructed model, the case of CCUS project site selection in Shengli power plant is analyzed, and the results showed that the third site is the best option. This study finds the importance of a comprehensive and timely risk assessment for the successful implementation of CCUS projects, and suggests that stakeholders carry out a risk assessment of CCUS projects prior to implementation based on the method presented in this paper, so as to improve the success rate.