Deformation Prediction of Unstable Slopes Based on Real-Time Monitoring and DeepAR Model

Abstract

With increased urbanization, accidents related to slope instability are frequently encountered in construction sites. The deformation and failure mechanism of a landslide is a complex dynamic process, which seriously threatens people’s lives and property. Currently, prediction and early warning of a landslide can be effectively performed by using Internet of Things (IoT) technology to monitor the landslide deformation in real time and an artificial intelligence algorithm to predict the deformation trend. However, if a slope failure occurs during the construction period, the builders and decision-makers find it challenging to effectively apply IoT technology to monitor the emergency and assist in proposing treatment measures. Moreover, for projects during operation (e.g., a motorway in a mountainous area), no recognized artificial intelligence algorithm exists that can forecast the deformation of steep slopes using the huge data obtained from monitoring devices. In this context, this paper introduces a real-time wireless monitoring system with multiple sensors for retrieving high-frequency overall data that can describe the deformation feature of steep slopes. The system was installed in the Qili connecting line of a motorway in Zhejiang Province, China, to provide a technical support for the design and implementation of safety solutions for the steep slopes. Most of the devices were retained to monitor the slopes even after construction. The machine learning Probabilistic Forecasting with Autoregressive Recurrent Networks (DeepAR) model based on time series and probabilistic forecasting was introduced into the project to predict the slope displacement. The predictive accuracy of the DeepAR model was verified by the mean absolute error, the root mean square error and the goodness of fit. This study demonstrates that the presented monitoring system and the introduced predictive model had good safety control ability during construction and good prediction accuracy during operation. The proposed approach will be helpful to assess the safety of excavated slopes before constructing new infrastructures.