Forecasting Energy Recovery from Municipal Waste in a Closed-Loop Economy

Abstract

Tackling climate change, implementing the principles of sustainable development and a closed-loop economy, and creating an economically and environmentally efficient waste management system are the most serious environmental and economic challenges today. One of the biggest problems with waste is that it causes water, soil, and air pollution. The combination of precipitation and septic processes produces leachates containing heavy metals and acids, which negatively affect surface and groundwater, changing their composition and pH, among other things. According to the Polish waste database, there are more than 2500 waste incineration plants operating worldwide, including more than 500 in Europe, while there are 8 in Poland. The concept of a closed-loop economy is based on the rational use of resources, i.e., less consumption of raw materials and energy by creating a closed loop of processes in which waste becomes raw materials in subsequent production stages. The aim of this study was to develop forecasts of electricity recovery from municipal waste using a prediction method based on an approximating function. The predictions made show that in 2023, the forecast of energy recovery from biodegradable municipal waste will be 6566 TJ. Projections of energy recovery from municipal waste for the future are steadily increasing, with planned recovery in 2030 at 9943 TJ.