The Spatial-Temporal Evolution of China’s Carbon Emission Intensity and the Analysis of Regional Emission Reduction Potential under the Carbon Emissions Trading Mechanism

Abstract

It is of great significance to study the regional differences and temporal and spatial evolution of China’s carbon emission intensity under the carbon emissions trading mechanism, and to explore the potential for regional emission reduction. This paper uses the Theil index and Moran index to analyze the regional differences and temporal and spatial evolution trend of carbon emission intensity in China from 2010 to 2019, further constructs the emission reduction effect standard of carbon emissions trading mechanisms, discusses the emission reduction effect of the trading mechanisms, and measures the regional emission reduction potential according to the environmental learning curve. The results showed that: (1) China’s overall carbon emissions continued to increase, but the carbon emission intensity showed an overall decreasing trend. There are strong regional differences in China’s carbon emission intensity. The carbon emission intensity in the western region is higher, and the overall regional difference is decreasing year by year. (2) China’s carbon emissions trading mechanism has a significant reduction effect, but the total quota slack of the Tianjin, Beijing, and Chongqing carbon emissions trading pilot markets is loose. (3) Shanghai, Shanxi, Jiangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, and Beijing are high-efficiency carbon emission reduction provinces (more than 35%), and Fujian and Xinjiang are low-efficiency carbon emission reduction provinces (less than 15%). It is necessary to further develop the demonstration effect of high emission reduction potential areas and increase the emission reduction efforts in low emission reduction potential areas.